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Everybody knows that the polls were showing a large Conservative lead going into the election. That’s why everybody knew on Monday before the voting even ended that they’d take up a minority government. But sometimes polls shouldn’t be trusted. Sure they have that 3% error that few people pay attention to, but also they can be misinterpreted, misleading, and misreported. Look at this:

“There was another event unnoticed by most Canadians that may have had a significant influence on the campaign. The Globe and Mail and CTV reported a poll showing the Conservatives with an enormous lead. The Conservatives gained momentum, the Liberals lost it. Other less publicized polls never found such a lead, and it probably never existed.”
- Anthony Westell, CBC News Viewpoint

He doesn’t give references so I can’t speak to the veracity of the claim, but I have talked about this before. And on top of that, there’s still the whole problem about vote splitting on the left… Liberals, NDP, Green, even the Bloc are all socially progressive from what I can tell. Maybe the latter three all merged into the New Green Bloc Démocratique Party they could actually get elected.

Random FAQ Comments (2)

2 Responses to “Pseudoconspiracy theory”

  1. I keep hearing this vote splitting theory being bandied about, and I don’t buy it. All merging the alleged left would do is give us an American system. Two parties. No options, because, drumroll please, those parties have very little in common.

    They are all socially progressive, but the Green party and the Liberal party are fiscally conservative, and while the NDP and the Bloc are both socially and fiscally progressive, the bloc are decentralists (which is something they have in common with the Reform party).

    So if we were to end up with two parties, we’d have the Liberals (because they’d swallow the other parties) and the Reform party. Two fiscally conservative parties, one of which is socially progressive. Hmmm. Could this be the same as the Republicrats down south?

    I think a much better move would be for the alleged left to make more of a push for proportional representation and a change to the confidence rules currently in place. I kind of see a cross between the German system and the South African system in my head.

  2. GP says:

    Yeah, I wasn’t really being serious. There’s no way all the left parties could merge. But that doesn’t mean vote splitting doesn’t happen, especially between the Liberal and NDP. It’s very easy to flip flop between the two.

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